publications

Markets aren’t “pricing in growth.”
They’re pricing in hoped-for growth — and that’s a dangerous difference.

At the Chicago Field Museum, the exhibit “Lions of Tsavo” showcases two predators whose behavior defied every law of the natural order. Overkill. Farmers call it “henhouse syndrome”: destroying far more than needed, driven by instinct gone wrong. In the wild, predators rarely do this — it’s not smart to exhaust the very resource you rely on.

Today’s global investors are edging into the same territory.

AI and EV stocks are trading at valuations far beyond their actual earnings. The rise isn’t built on business fundamentals. It’s built on retirement flows, money-market inflows, and workers’ automatic contributions, which keep pushing prices up even as earnings slide.

This isn’t Friedman.
It isn’t Buffett.
It isn’t Yellen.

Their doctrine favored long-term fundamentals, rational pricing, and steady performance — growth that served the consumer, not just the shareholder. What’s happening now looks more like bitcoin’s early mania: profit that can vanish like cotton candy in a windstorm.

We are closer to a pre-Volcker moment — a period when cracks are ignored because optimism feels easier than discipline. We saw the same tension in 2008, when real estate nearly triggered a replay of the 1929 crisis. And today? One shock is enough: a disrupted supply chain, a materials shortage, a regulatory hit, or a guidance miss. Five minutes can change everything.

AI is a genuine turning point in human history. However, the greed surrounding it is pushing us toward catastrophic loss. Without real guardrails, we force the country into impossible choices — between healthcare and food, stability and survival.

When prices depend on expectations rather than earnings, volatility becomes a policy.
And policy cannot protect anyone from a repricing driven by fear instead of facts.

A correction isn’t a failure.
It’s a reminder: hope is not a hedge.